GE17 - Anticipations liveblog

 - Conservatives 9 seats short of a majority government; forced into coalition with the DUP.

 - Labour gain seats across the country, coming from third to win in Portsmouth South, making +29 net gains. 

 - Labour gain 7 MPs in Scotland, and make strong performances in London, gaining Enfield Southgate, Battersea and Kensington. 

13:00 - So, just a final summation to finish off the election blog as a whole. Theresa May and the Conservatives look set to join a coalition with the DUP, after only winning 317 seats, 9 less than an absolute majority. The DUP are a very right wing unionist party in Northern Ireland, who are anti-abortion, anti-gay marriage and very pro-Brexit. I'd expect a new election in a few months, albeit without Theresa May at the helm. 

Reports are already going round of MPs such as Boris Johnson and Andrea Leadsom calling round colleagues in parliament to gain support, and after May's tone deaf speech on the steps of downing street, I don't think they'll be short of allies. 

Labour have made a final gain in Kensington, the richest constituency in the UK, with reports the defeated Conservative candidate told newly elected Labour MP Emma Dent Coat to "keep us in the single market". 

Later today I'll have a winners and losers write up, and then in the days after I'll have a profile of the "Labour class of 2017". 

I hope everyone enjoyed the liveblog, and it's certainly something I'm looking at doing again!

 

04:30 Good news - Alex Salmond and Angus Robertson have lost their seat. Bad News - Turns out Philip Davies hasn't. Even Better News - Labour have gained Colne Valley. Even Worse News - this will be the last live blog update. I'll still be commenting on twitter (@bengartside), but I can't handle the NationBuilder at 4am. I'll be writing a summation tomorrow, as well as a longer piece on Labour's class of 2017. 

 

04:00 LABOUR GAINS in Croydon Central (ex Con Maj. 165), Lincoln(ex Con Maj. 1,400), Warrington South(ex Con Maj. 2,750), Weaver Vale(ex Con Maj. 806), Warwick and Leamington (ex Con Maj. 6,600), Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill (ex SNP Maj. 11,500) and Derby North (ex Con Maj. 41)

Congratulations to Sarah Jones, Karen Lee, Faisal Rashid, Mike Amesbury, Matt Western, Hugh Gaffney, Chris Williamson.

Feel like all the jokes about Chris Williamson have been made, but well done to him for sticking to his guns and winning. Also a special congratulations to Mike Amesbury, who I've worked with and will be a very strong MP for Weaver Vale. 

 

03:30 LABOUR GAIN in East Lothian (ex SNP Maj. 6,800), Cardiff North (ex Con Maj. 2,100), Bedford (ex Con Maj. 1,000), Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (ex SNP Maj. 9,900) Canterbury (ex  Con Maj. 9,700) and Portsmouth South (ex Con Maj. 5,200)

Congratulations to Martin Whitfield, Anne McMorrin, Mohammed Yasin, Lesley Laird, Rosie Duffield and Stephen Morgan.

Absolutely remarkable performance by Labour in Portsmouth South - Labour come from third to win the seat.

Meanwhile, Preet Gill becomes Britain's first female Sikh MP by being elected to replace Gisela Stuart in Birmingham Edgbaston.

Simultanously, Labour have lost Daghenham and Rainham to the Conservatives - meaning Jon Cruddas has sadly lost his seat. UPDATE: Sky got it wrong  - Jon Cruddas has held on. 

Meanwhile, Theresa May has called for a "period of stability", which Kuenssberg and Dimbelby suspect this means another election soon. 

 

03:00 LABOUR GAIN Peterborough (ex Con Maj.2,000) LABOUR GAIN Stroud (ex Con Maj. 4,800) LABOUR GAIN Glasgow North East (ex SNP Maj. 9,222) and Bristol North West (ex Con Maj. 4,950)

Congratulations to Fiona Onasanya, David Drew, Darren Jones and Paul Sweeney on their victories.

Sadly Labour MP David Winnick has lost his Walsall seat to the Conservatives. 

In other news, there's a Fabian gain in Twickenham, with ex-Young Fabian (now tuition fee loving Lib Dem) Vince Cable beating Conservative Tania Mathias

02:45 LABOUR GAINS in High Peak (ex Con Maj. 4,900), Gower (ex Con Maj. 27),Sheffield Hallam (ex Lib Dem Maj. 2,300) and Ipswich (Con Maj. 3,700), whilst Labour come within 75 votes of gaining Glasgow East, all getting very very serious. 

I would do a little political obit for Clegg, but with my thousands of pounds of student debt I don't really feel in the mood. Congratulations to Jared O'Mara. 

 

02:30 LABOUR GAINS The portillo moment: It's become apparent Labour have gained Hastings and Rye of the Conservatives, meaning Home Secretary and chief loyalist to May, Amber Rudd has lost her seat - congratulations to Peter Chowney on his election. Dani Rowley seems to have been successful in her bid to become the first female MP for Midlothian, congratulations to Dani.

The BBC have revised up their forecast to 322, which whilst not an actual government is more than comfortable enough to govern with, especially when Sinn Fein are taken into account. However, this seems to be revised up based on the calamitous performance of the SNP, rather than any Labour misstep.

Also, Simon Danczuk lost his deposit in Rochdale. Good riddance. 

 

02:15 MORE LABOUR GAINS

Marsha De Cardova has gained Battersea for Labour off the Tories, and Alex Sobel has gained Leeds North West for Labour off the Lib Dems. James Frith has gained Bury North off the Conservatives in Greater Manchester, in a result few were expecting. Labour have also come within the skin of their teeth of gaining Arfon of Plaid Cymru, in what seems to be a very promising night indeed. 

BBC are comparing their results to the exit poll, and things aren't looking too bad. Whilst Labour are currently performing below their expected national average, the election seems to be being fought on such an odd local basis we aren't entirely sure what things mean yet. The SNP however, are doing much worse than expected, with the nationalists moving down 4% from the exit poll. 

In other news, two of my friends have now won a bit of money because of my tips on the election, I stupidly decided not to gamble. 

 

02:00 LABOUR GAINS

Labour have gained Vale of Clwyd and Stockton South off the Tories. Stockton South is still unconfirmed, however ITV reckon Paul Williams have taken it by about 900 votes. Tom Blenkinsop, who stood down from parliament this election, has invited defeated Conservative MP James Wharton for a jam butty and a trip to the job centre

In the Vale of Clwyd. ex-MP Chris Ruane has gained back his seat, beating the Conservatives by 2,400 votes. 

Kevin Schofield reporting that Philip Davies has lost his seat in Shipley, which will be celebrated widely across the house, congratulations to Steve Clapcote on his Labour gain.

 

01:30 Labour have absolutely stormed Tooting, despite a strong campaign by the Tories, and seem to have gained Battersea off the Tories. Everything seems to be changing very quickly, Corbyn is now favourite to be the next PM on Betfair...

Meanwhile, we've got our second class of 2017 MP, along with Ged Killen. Jo Platt has succeeded in her bid to replace Andy Burnham as the MP for Leigh, after he was elected the Mayor of Greater Manchester. It's all looking good for the team around Burnham, with Andrew Gwynne winning plaudits for his election campaign, and two field organisers for his mayoral campaign Jo Platt (standing in Leigh) and Mike Amesbury (standing in Weaver Vale) looking set to join parliament as Burnham leaves. 

 

01:15 LABOUR GAIN - First gain of the evening! Labour gain in Rutherglen and Hamilton West, overturning a SNP majority of 10,000. Congratulations to Gerald Killen on his election!

 

01:00 Labour pass the first big test of the evening, with Jenny Chapman in Darlington holding. Meanwhile, Labour seem to be heading to a better performance in Wales. Earlier in the evening the exit poll predicted that Labour would lose seats in Wales, calling Alyn and Deeside, Wrexham and Brigend for the Conservatives. However, things seem to be changing - BBC have now said Labour will gain Gower (Con Maj. 27) and Aberconwy (Con Maj. 4,000). 

Sticking on the nations, the BBC have finally revealed their full prediction for Scotland, with it saying Labour will gain eleven seats. If true, Labour will gain Mhairi Black's seat Paisley and Renfrewshire South (SNP maj. 5,600), and will see Better Together campaign director Blair McDougall elected in East Renfrewshire (SNP maj. 3,700). 

Whilst Labour may not be doing well in the north, they are doing astoundingly in the nations. 

00:45 Two more results in: Broxbourne and Nuneaton. Both seats stay Tory with small swings to Labour, but promising nonetheless. BBC reporting Northampton North, Battersea and Thurrock will go to Labour. The Daily Express are reporting that Phillip Davies, the anti-feminist MP who is the human equivalent of putting a cocktail stick under your toenail and kicking the door, is also in trouble. Although, actual results in the north are still not promising. Workingtin in Cumbria swings towards the Tories. 

 

00:30 SCOTLAND. WELCOME HOME...well not quite. Although BBC reporting that Labour could gain between 4-6, Conservatives 6-7, and the Lib Dems are likely to gain a few too. I'm currently debating whether to send my first apology letter to Momentum, YouGov or Chris Williamson. If you have a preference, or have a question, chat to me on twitter at @bengartside, as there isn't a result for a while.

 

00:15 Paul Waugh of the Huffington Post is reporting Labour are likely to win Kensington, which has shocked Labour and Conservatives alike. Kensington currently has a majority of 7,000, and is on a uniform national swing would give Labour a majority of 1. Meanwhile Lib Dems are confident of gaining seats in London, Scotland and Bath according to the New Statesman's Patrick Maguire. Britain Elects are reporting that Labour will gain both Coatbridge and Rutherglen off the SNP in Scotland, and Battersea in London. Lib Dem seat Ceredigion is now apparently a four way marginal, with "Labour and the Tories [having] come from nowhere". A very interesting night ahead of us indeed...

 

00:00 - Labour making big gains in Swindon North, moving up 7,000 votes since 2015. Whilst Conservatives making gains in the North, Swindon North is a very positive result in the South indeed. John Curtice say both Newcastle East and Swindon North are better for Labour than the exit poll expected...

 

23:30 So what now for Theresa May? BuzzFeed journalist Marie Le Conte rightly points out that even if the Tories get 10 more seats than the exit poll, she's likely still to be booted out of the door. The consensus of Phillip Hammond being sacked no longer seems so certain either. If May does have the political capital to survive this, she won't have enough support sacking Hammond. Although, Peter Kellner is now saying there could be a Tory majority of up to 100 based of the two first results. Why can't we do it like France where we find it out immediately?

 

23:15 Oh dear. Houghton and Sunderland South is not good for Labour at all. Conservatives jump up 5,000 vote, with a Labour to Conservative swing of 3.5%. This is now very, very nerve wracking. Battersea, Swindon North, Nuneaton and Slough will all be crucial, and all results will be out around 1am, a long night ahead. 

Meanwhile, Neil Hamilton is on the BBC. I covered UKIP conference for the Manchester Gazette just before the Stoke by-election, when Nuttall was in hiding mode during the Hillsborough scandal. Numerous UKIP politicians said they didn't know where Nuttall was, and many just lied about where he was. Neil Hamilton, however, was surprisingly truthful, despite his history. When I asked him if he knew where Nuttall was, he simply replied "Oh he's holed up in that suite upstairs isn't he, hiding from the media? Don't tell them I told you that", then he wandered off to go and say hello to a friend. Neil Hamilton is if nothing else, a very peculiar man. 

 

23:00 - NEWCASTLE-UPON-TYNE CENTRAL RESULT: LAB 65%(+10%)CON 25%(+6%)LD 5%(-1%)UKIP 4% (-10%). Labour to Conservative swing of 2%. Interestingly, Peter Kellner reckons this means the exit poll has under-estimated Labour - a long night is ahead of us.

 

22:45 - Seat details - BBC have the Tories making serious gains in Scotland, which means there may be serious gains for Labour in Scotland. Lib Dem Jo Swinson is projected to gain back Dunbartonshire East in Scotland, which is relieving a lot of Lib Dems, as Swinson is percieved as a natural successor to Farron. 

In terms of Labour, they're projected to pick up Elmet and Rothwell (Con Maj. 8,500), Hendon (Con Maj, 3,700) and Finchley and Golders Green (Con Maj. 5,600). I say wait and see. 

 

22:30 - Looking at the exit poll (rather than just gawping at it in sheer amazement), it seems like either Labour has done outstanding in England, needing to have gained around 40 seats, as the most likely beneficiary from the SNP's apparent collapse is the Conservatives, and in order for the Tories to come out net -17, Labour would need to counteract those gains. 

Samantha asks if Labour's internal numbers were the same as the exit poll, and if not what did they say? According to Isabel Hardman at the Spectator, Labour were expecting at the start of the campaign to fall to around 140 seats, but that was before the Labour surge. Whilst that was before Labour's surge, activist were being directed to areas like Ealing Central and Acton (Lab Maj. 274) and Batley and Spen (2015 Lab Maj. 6,000), so it seems not.

 

22:15 - Well...

 If *that* exit poll is right, it looks like the Conservatives will be reliant on the DUP and UUP to govern after the election. More interestingly, Labour look set to knock out some big remainers, with Anna Soubry and Nick Clegg look set to lose seats on a uniform swing, and the BBC are reporting Home Secretary Amber Rudd may be in trouble too

George Eaton points out, that if May is forced out because of the losses (which may well happen), she'll be the shortest-lived Prime Minister since Bonar Law in 1922-23.

If anyone has questions, please send me them on twitter, (@bengartside) as the 22:00 till 23:00 period is the driest, so I might as well answer any questions.

 

22:00 EXIT POLL IN: CONSERVATIVES 314(-17), LABOUR 266(+34), LIBERAL DEMOCRAT 14(6), UKIP 0(-1), GREEN 1(+-0), SNP (-22), PLAID CYMRU 3 (+-0) OH MY GOD

 

21:45 - So, what are we likely to see this evening? On a constituency basis, we're unsure. There has been very little constituency polling over this election, and what we've seen so far isn't too promising for Labour. In terms of projections, there are wild variations. YouGov have the Conservatives 24 seats short of a majority, whilst Election Forecast have the Tories with a majority of 82. In terms of response on the door today, all I've heard so far is Alex Wickham of Guido Fawkes reporting the Lib Dems are feeling bullish in Twickenham, Richmond Park and Kingston. So we may at least see one Fabian member make a gain this evening, albeit Vince Cable... 

EDIT: As soon as I update this, Business Insider's Adam Payne reports Labour are holding up well in London but really struggling in the Midlands and the Northeast. Worrying...

 

21:30 - Hello and welcome to the anticipations liveblog! I'll be covering the election on this blog between now and 06:00, and it should be quite eventful. I'll be trying to give updates every fifteen minutes, but expect that to unravel as the evening goes on. I'll also be tweeting on my personal account of @bengartside, where I'll be posting things that don't quite deserve a blog update. 

PS, if you haven't voted yet, vote. You've still got half an hour, so use it. 

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