 With less than two weeks until the presidential election, Adrian Prandle looks at Barack Obama’s chances of victory and the strengths of his campaign that may tip the balance.
For all that Americans find British people reserved, we’re certainly getting very, very, excited about a certain presidential candidate and his recent success in the polls.
Let me say this before I continue: I think Barack Obama is going to win the election to become the 44th President of the United States of America.
But, over the ocean, we shouldn’t get carried away with our expectations. In 2004 I was working and campaigning in the US and people from Britain and Europe were amazed that America could re-elect President Bush. They still ask me now, if I was surprised.
 Much has been written about the Democrats’ choice of presidential candidate in 2004 and the campaign, but on the whole it was a pretty tight race and even though the Republicans claimed a dramatic popular mandate – as they were entitled – it was a relatively close result. However, on election day the polls we were getting were outstandingly good for John Kerry; too good to be true I guess. So forgive my very cautious optimism.
This isn’t about the Bradley effect – which I don’t think gives twenty-first century Americans enough credit – but closer analysis of this year’s polls show why Obama’s lead may be more fragile than we think.
In a Wall Street Journal article on the importance of independent voters, we’re reminded that though they’ve swung in Obama’s direction in recent weeks, John McCain’s lead was as much as 15 points after both the conventions – this is a disloyal group of voters by definition and there can be no relent in winning them over in the final fortnight.
Meanwhile, Gallup’s latest rolling 3-day tracking poll shows Obama’s lead drop from an exciting 11 points among registered voters to a narrower 9 points among ‘likely voters in 2008’ and a nervous 5 points among a traditional definition of ‘likely voters’. A day back, this was just 3 points – within the margin of error.
What is significant about the different definitions of ‘likely voters’ is that the traditional model takes into account respondents' history of voting, whereas the 2008 model is based solely on current interest in the campaign and self-reported likelihood of voting. Demographics such as young people, seen as a key Obama constituency, are notorious for not turning out despite apparent enthusiasm.
 Much has been made of the Obama campaign’s extraordinary grassroots efforts to engage with previous non-voters and to register new voters. What we just don’t know at this stage is the extent of its success. Similar stories were being told about the Kerry campaign four years ago, in particular in relation to an American youth angry about the war in Iraq.
What is different compared to 4 years ago, is 2 new campaign strategies that understand people and base themselves upon relationships.
The first is the very neighbourhood-based method of campaigning that has come from the primary season. This allows campaigners to develop a rapport with voters by telling their personal story and connecting to how the individual will benefit from an Obama presidency.
The second is the process of taking people on a journey from citizen to supporter to campaigner. This seeks to bring new people into the campaign and empower them.
The electoral system means that the victory will come down to the typical swing states. However, as a result of Obama’s very successful fundraising, he can afford far more advertising in these crucial states than McCain.
But in the end, Obama needs people not adverts. It’s said, money can’t buy you love – but the passion of inspired campaigners should be able to win you votes. The hard work that has brought the Democrats to where they are now must continue. Every Obama campaigner and volunteer needs to keep working to the final second of the final hour of this very long campaign.
Then we can enjoy the polls.
Adrian Prandle
Officer Without Portfolio
The Young Fabians in association with the Fabian Society are also holding a day long debate immediatly after the election to discuss what the result means for Europe. Find out more or book tickets now.
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