/>China-EU year of youth: the promise of new foreign policy
On Friday 6 May, as part of the EU-China Year of Youth, the Young Fabians and youth groups from other parties were invited to contribute to a roundtable looking issues from educational links to climate change. Below is a summary of my introductory remarks to the roundtable, speaking about “China and Foreign Policy”
The promise of new foreign policy
There is a promise for a new type of foreign policy, driven by an unprecedented level of shared interests between nations.
The ideal is that UK foreign policy exists to support an environment conducive to sustainable, balanced global growth and stability; and that Chinese foreign policy exists to support an environment conducive to sustainable, balanced global growth and stability.
Across the political spectrum in the UK, there is consensus that we want the promise to prevail.
The financial crisis and the global downturn both demonstrated the extent to which economies, particularly the world’s leading economies are interlinked and interdependent. We are exposed to similar shocks and risks, and preventative action to contain economic risks requires cooperation. We no longer have distinct national interests.
It is important at the outset to recognise China’s achievements. Particularly in terms of poverty alleviation, China’s record of raising urban annual per capita income nine-fold over two decades is unprecedented in human history and raised millions from a life of suffering and squalor.
On the left, we are instinctively international and support the equal treatment and opportunity of human beings. China’s increasing prosperity is the success story of the century for humanity – and long may it continue. There is also much to welcome in the Ambassador’s remarks and the latest five-year economic plan on the environment and social equity.
However, both the EU and China, and indeed other players, need to be vigilant against clear risks to this happy co-existence and shared prosperity. There are three risks that I would like to talk about.
Resources and the return of Malthus
The world is resource constrained. In the UK we sometimes imagine that the globalisation of trade is unstoppable. Resource scarcity in oil, in commodities, in food, and in water – compounded by climate change – has already surfaced and put pressure on our global economic system and free trade. The pressure could mount to encourage countries to break economic links and return to a mercantilist approach to ownership of resources in the world.
State-back Chinese operations focus on securing resources, which can look highly mercantilist, and any draw back from free and open access to resources in a system of global trade will threaten our happy co-existence and the promise of new foreign policy.
The extraordinary growth in world population, expected to reach above 9bn by 2040, will put enormous pressure on the sustainability of our way of life. We should be in no doubt that nations will have to work very very hard not to come into conflict over resources.
China can play its part in building trust and confidence by encouraging transparency in its state backed businesses operating in extractive resources and should work to uphold open economic systems at all times.
Buyout fear
$1 trillion to $2 trillion of Chinese investment is expected to be on the markets by 2020.
We saw with Cadbury how emotive buy-outs can be.
Perceptions that Chinese buyouts are state-backed, unfair and – at worst – compromise on national security could undermine the promise of new foreign and economic policy.
In Europe, we need prepare the ground for Chinese investment in Europe, avoiding protectionism and buyout fear, and embracing new ways of doing business, innovation and investment in our communities.
Again from the Chinese side, there needs to be more effort put into transparency of Chinese companies.
On security, if China ceased to invest so heavily in cyber-military capabilities, it might allay fears over the implications of allowing investment and growth of Chinese high-tech companies in OECD nations. Stop the security hawks playing their games, which undermine Chinese high tech industries – particularly in relation to their Indian counterparts.
Legitimacy, peace and trust
China is not a democracy and its leadership relies on success for legitimacy. When economic success runs dry, history has shown us that authoritarian nations turn to jingoism and militarism to underpin their authority.
The growth of democracy in China will help avoid that terrible fate underpin the promise of cooperative growth and shared prosperity.
Everything should be done to better connect young British leaders in business, politics and civic society to their peers in China to help build understanding and dialogue between the two countries, and help avoid a slip from peaceful development.
A promising century
So it is a promising century for human cooperation, for prosperity – but we shouldn’t be ignorant of the threats to that promise. I think a lot of the choice in which way we will go in this century rests on Chinese foreign policy.
We have heard a lot that we can support from the Ambassador today, and we look to working with you, in the small way that we can, to help achieve the promise of a shared, prosperous and harmonious future.
Nick Maxwell is Fundraising and Partnerships Officer for the Young Fabians.
