Posts Tagged ‘Ashcroft’

Politics is about more than promises. But if that’s all you’re offering. My advice is, don’t break them.

Tuesday, March 2nd, 2010

Yesterday’s announcement about Lord Ashcroft confirmed my suspicions in more ways than one. That one of the Tories’ chief donors and strategists is a non dom is hardly surprising. For a decade Tory leader after Tory leader has tied himself in knots trying to protect him. Yet the real indictment of the Tories is not simply that they hid this truth from the public. It’s that they placed a man at the heart of their operation who was happy to shortchange the exchequer at the same time as he pumped money into their key marginals. Flashy leaflets took priority over tax for public services. That says as much about Cameron as it does about Ashcroft himself.

It’s a matter of weeks until the election and David Cameron continues to refuse to put meat on the bones of his plans for the country. His speech to the Tory spring conference yesterday was another example of Cameron’s cynicism. A speech with as much substance as he had notes. He might as well have saved us all the time and simply said, “look at me, I’ve remembered loads!” The first time he did it (according to him that is. He didn’t actually do his 2007 conference speech without notes. They were sitting right in front of him) it was cute. The second time it was just smarmy.

Across the country the public are getting smart to Cameron’s game. A Comres poll in tomorrow’s Independent shows Tory support falling and Labour as the largest party in Parliament. Local people from across Cheltenham have been swamped by Ashcroft leaflets. The Gloucestershire Echo revealed yesterday that Tory HQ have plowed over £30,000 into the town. But residents know that it takes more than expensive design work to win their support. Politics is about more than promises. But if that is all you’re offering and you refuse to outline concrete plans. My advice is, don’t break them.

Don’t Belize all you read

Friday, February 5th, 2010

I met up last night with Kunal Khatri, formerly of the YF Executive Committee, who readers will remember as the excellent organiser and host of our pub quizzes last year. Hard to escape, we discussed the election and the potential impact the outcome could have on our respective day jobs. Amongst other things, we talked a bit about the polls, which have improved in the last couple of weeks in a much more convincing way than the Labour boost towards the end of last year.

I’m pleased with the direction of travel of the national voting intentions. But the point I made to Kunal was that the media are reporting a minimal amount of data from the marginal seats in comparison to these headline figures, coupled with comments about uniform swing and the likely balance of seats in the next parliament. The reality is that Labour can be narrowing the overall gap in intentions but that it could be making little difference to the outcome of the election if those people aren’t living in the right constituencies. My hunch was that were we to see more polling from the key seats, we’d probably find the Tories with a wider gap than the 7/8 per cent that has been accepted right now as roughly the difference nationally. Morale-wise, this close to the election – and given how the parliamentary party in particular has reacted to polls in recent years – it’s perhaps best that we don’t see such polls and stay focused on the task in hand …

However, there are some out there and today I’ve come across an interesting analysis by Anthony Wells for UK Polling Report of Ipsos-MORI’s aggregated data for 2009 (that is, all their polls combined), followed up on by Andrew Sparrow. What we see is the Tories – last year, so not accounting for the recent downturn in their fortunes – having a 5% larger lead (a somewhat formidable 21% lead) in Lab-Con marginals. The swing to the Tories in these seats is greater than the swing in safe Labour seats and quite significantly better than that in safe Tory seats.

In other words, they appear to be winning over voters where it matters. There’s one reason for that: a certain Lord Ashcroft. Which is why it’s so important his personal tax situation is clarified.

The lesson is that we mustn’t get complacent about the direction of travel and about the electoral system working in our favour. And we mustn’t stop the fight.

UPDATE: I forgot to include a link to some recent ICM polling of marginals for the News of the World.