Let’s ‘AVe more important debates
Am I alone in hoping that the early months of Labour’s new leadership is not dominated by the upcoming referendum on electoral reform?
I don’t agree with much of Anthony Painter’s blog yesterday on this campaign, but I do agree with the comment he supplemented it with which suggested that it’s not going to split the Coalition. I think there’ll be much bigger fracture points both before and after, but more significantly believe that the electoral reform debate threatens to distract from the damage ideological cuts will be making to people’s lives. The new leader, whilst building a fresh and credible policy platform, must focus on what matters. And to the people suffering most from the change in government, the electoral system isn’t going to be top of their lists.
It’s interesting that the centrepiece of Anthony’s post is the case for making the ‘yes’ campaign a ‘no’ campaign on first past the post. It strikes me that this is because there is actually very little to be said in favour of the alternative vote. It isn’t PR, just simply FPTP with the an added platitude. The belief that having the ‘support’ (often by default and through reluctantly reassigned votes) of 50% of those who vote (not 50% of the potential electorate) in a constituency will somehow instantly change politics or MPs’ behaviour is without substance. First it unfairly burdens the majority of parliamentarians with the characteristics of the worst. And second, it assumes that needing a few more votes provides enough of a tipping point to shift the complacency he describes. Why would it?
The big strengths in FPTP are actually best contrasted with PR systems (genuine, effective single member constituencies for the whole of the house; and consequently – particularly with a recall mechanism – real lines of accountability between public and politician) so to say, as Anthony does, that there are only two arguments for FPTP is slightly disingenuous. Of course the contrast for the coming months though is with AV not PR.
The first of Anthony’s two straw men, that FPTP delivers clear outcomes, is, as above, relevant to a comparison with PR more than AV, which would achieve likewise. The second, the propensity of maverick politicians is not necessarily one I’d make.
I would argue, however, that the case for change has to justify the inevitable expense and disruption; the similarities between FPTP and AV are such that this is questionable. There’s not a long list of things ‘wrong’ with AV, 50% is no bad thing – but it’s not the magic bullet its proponents suggest. Rather it is anodyne. But that doesn’t present a strong argument for amending our electoral system.
Anthony omits the simplicity defence of FPTP. I personally think it’s an important one. I don’t for one minute buy the counter-argument that to say other electoral systems are complex is somehow patronising to the public at large and that such views deserve to stay in the Westminster village. Complexity is a genuine concern. As Vice Chair of the Young Fabians I may be said to be part of a Westminster village accused of looking down on the wider population, but my own recent experience is worth highlighting. I am afforded the rare luxury of being an undecided voter in the leadership election. I understand how AV works and am certain to vote. Yet the iterations of how I will vote have been rattling through my head for months now. Do I place 5 ranked votes? Do I just vote for the three I’d be comfortable with as leader? Do I vote my likely second or third preferred leader number one so as to ensure they help take out early another candidate I don’t want to be in the final two or three? Possibilities are endless …
If turnout drops as a result of a change to the electoral system then we’re left with the perversity of MPs being elected with a greater share of the vote (50+%) but, potentially, less actual votes from their constituents. Is that desirable?
Given all the talk of PR in the months leading to the general election, I was interested to see very early on that all five of Labour’s leadership candidates were openly (small c) conservative on electoral reform when not long before it had seemed an unstoppable bandwagon in party circles. I’m not going to be a passionate defender of FPTP, and I would not be unhappy with AV, but I won’t be jumping on the bandwagon of change for change’s sake or as a solution to a problem of which the electoral system was not a cause. I just don’t think it’s where the radical centre-left should be expending its energy.
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